The climate change projections used on this web site are based on the A2 scenario simulation of ECHAM5, the General Circulation Model of Max Planck Institute in Germany. Downscaling its outputs to a higher resolution (27 km) was achieved by employing a Regional Climate Model called ICTP-RegCM3 (the regional climate model of International Centre for Theoretical Physics in Trieste, Italy).


A2 is a high emission scenario. “The A2 storyline and scenario family describes a very heterogeneous world with continuously increasing global population and regionally oriented economic growth that is more fragmented and slower than in other storylines.” link

Hotspot Analysis:

Hotspot cities or basins are determined based on the average and standard deviation of the data of interest (e.g. population of the 81 provinces). If the values are larger than the average plus two standard deviations (average + 2 * standard deviation), then these cities or basins are specified as hotspots. For instance, Istanbul and Ankara are hotspots for population, because their populations are larger than the average plus two times the standard deviation of all provinces.


The observational precipitation and temperature data are obtained from the General Directorate of Meteorology. The water potential data are obtained from the State Hydraulic Works. The forest data are obtained from the General Directorate of Forestry. The demography and sector data (agriculture, tourism and energy) are obtained from the Turkish Statistical Institution (TÜİK).


The maps are prepared on a Geographic Information System (ArcMap).
The graphics are prepared on NCL (NCAR Command Language) and Excel.

More info:

For more information about the data used on this web site, please see the following publications:

Bozkurt, D., U. Turuncoglu, O.L. Sen, B. Onol, and H.N. Dalfes, 2011: Downscaled simulations of the ECHAM5, CCSM3 and HadCM3 global models for the eastern Mediterranean-Black Sea region: Evaluation of the reference period, Climate Dynamics, DOI 10.1007/s00382-011-1187-x

Bozkurt, D., Sen, O.L., 2013: Climate change impacts in the Euphrates-Tigris Basin based on different model and scenario simulations. Journal of Hydrology, 480, 149-161.

Sen, O.L., A. Unal, D. Bozkurt and T. Kindap, 2011: Temporal Changes in Euphrates and Tigris Discharges and Teleconnections, Environmental Research Letters, 6, 024012, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/6/2/024012.

Sen, O.L., 2013: A holistic view of climate change and its impacts in Turkey, Mercator-IPC Report, SU-Istanbul Policy Center. Link

Demir, C., Yıldız, H., Cingöz, A., Simav, M., Türkiye Kıyılarında Uzun Dönemli Deniz Seviyesi Değişimleri, 13 sayfa, V. Ulusal Kıyı Mühendisliği Sempozyumu, 5-7 Mayıs 2005, Bodrum.

Önol B., D. Bozkurt, U. Turuncoglu, O.L. Sen, and H.N. Dalfes (2013). Evaluation of the 21st century RCM simulations driven by multiple GCMs over the Eastern Mediterranean-Black Sea region. Climate Dynamics. doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1966-7.

Sarıkaya, M.A., Türkiye’nin güncel buzulları, Fiziki Coğrafya Araştırmaları: Sistematik ve Bölgesel (içinde), Türk Coğrafya Kurumu Yayınları, Sayı: 6, 527-544, İstanbul 2011.